It seems that storm clouds are gathering on the horizon of Kabul-Teheran relations. The two capitals had shared a warm friendship over the past nine years, despite the presence of the U.S. forces, and the long simmering tensions between Washington and Iran.

President Hamid Karzai has had a very cordial relationship with his Iranian counterpart. The Afghan president was the first to congratulate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after the contentious elections in Iran, which were followed by weeks of violent protests and a brutal crackdown on the opposition.

Ahmadinejad returned the favor a few months later when Karzai was named president in the wake of a fraud-tainted election that nearly ended in a runoff.

But the climate between Kabul and Teheran has turned chilly after Iran embargoed thousands of fuel tankers bound for Afghanistan. Iran claims that the fuel tankers are supplying NATO forces stationed in Afghanistan, although NATO and the Afghan government have denied this.

The blockade has resulted in fuel shortages and higher prices.

Protests erupted in the Afghan capital, with angry Afghans pelting the Iranian Embassy with eggs and burning photos of Iranian leaders, as fuel prices rose and the weather turned frigid.

There were similar protests in Herat, which lies on the border with Iran. The Iranian ambassador to Kabul, Fida Hussein Maliki, called the protesters “puppets of the West” in an interview with the Iranian media.

“We ask the Afghan government to identify and sentence the perpetrators; otherwise, the government of Iran will review its economic and political relations with Afghanistan,” he said.

But the Afghan government has rejected this demand.

“Kabul is not Tehran,” said government spokesperson, Rafi Ferdous. ”The people of Afghanistan have the right to protest and demand their rights.”

This response did not suit Tehran; the Iranian government summoned the Afghan ambassador and requested an explanation.

Ahmad Saeedi, a Kabul-based political analyst, says that since Afghanistan is an independent country Iran does not have the right to question where the tankers go or who is receiving the fuel.

“This fuel is bought from Kuwait, Iraq and Turkmenistan and based on international agreement it transits through Iran,” he said. “Due Afghanistan’s landlocked state, it has to use neighboring countries for transit of goods; Iran also benefits the flow of water from Afghanistan, which it uses in its agricultural production.”

With the crisis growing by the hour, many question whether the relationship between the two presidents can save the day.

So far personal diplomacy has not brought results.

First Vice President Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim tried to break the deadlock by traveling to Teheran. Despite promises, the tankers remain in place.

Karzai has avoided any formal statements condemning Iran’s action, which Saeedi finds troubling.

“Iran is not Ahmadinejad’s property, nor is Afghanistan Karzai’s,” he said. “The Afghan president should put his personal feelings aside and take serious action to resolve this problem. If the Iranian government shows no mercy to its own people, and harshly suppress any civil protest, how can we expect that they will show mercy to Afghans who are suffering because of this blockade?”

Political analyst Haroon Mir also points out the effect that Karzai’s personality-based foreign policy is having on the country’s foreign relations. Afghanistan’s foreign relations are not based on strategic considerations or national interest, he said.

“President Karzai has total control over foreign policy,” he said. “Afghanistan has good relations with a country if our president has good relations with the president of that country. But if he does not, then the government follows a vague and aimless policy toward that country.”

Neighboring countries have legitimate interests in Afghanistan, Mir pointed out, and this must be taken into account.

“In my opinion, the main responsibility of Afghanistan’s diplomatic corps is to separate the legitimate and illegitimate interests of regional and international countries in Afghanistan,” he added. “Regional counties, particularly Iran, have legitimate and illegitimate interests in Afghanistan; our government should be able to assure Iran that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is not undermining Iran’s national interests. The government should discuss any issues with the government of Iran in a friendly manner.  

“Also, the Afghan government should prevent Iran or any other country from interfering in Afghanistan,” he added. “It should be clear for the neighboring countries that a stable and democratic Afghanistan is in to their benefit.”
But challenges remain.

“The embargo of the Afghan fuel tankers is not the only issue hindering good relations between Iran and Afghanistan,” said Mir. ”The problem of Afghan refugees in Iran occasionally upsets the political equilibrium between the two countries and provokes people’s hatred and protests against Iran.”

While the fuel tankers remain stalled on the border, Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry has warned that it will cease doing business with Iran. The Chamber announced that the Afghan government will seek to route its fuel through Russia, to avoid difficulties in the future.