As was made clear by the NATO summit in Lisbon last week, the international community is professing optimism about gradually handing over responsibility to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) by 2014. This would facilitate a phased withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, although the international community has said that it stands ready to ensure security and stability in Afghanistan even after the 2014 date.

“Success in war in Afghanistan is as important for us as it is for Afghan people,” said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, speaking at a press conference in Lisbon. “We have to make sure we do not leave Afghanistan prematurely” he added.

But the primary aim of the conference was to ensure that international forces could begin to transition out of their fighting role.
 
“My goal is to make sure that by 2014 we have transitioned, Afghans are in the lead, and it is a goal to make sure we are not still engaged in combat operations of the sort we are involved in now," said U.S. President Barack Obama at the Lisbon conference.

After the Sep 11 attacks and the establishment of an interim administration in Afghanistan, the Bonn conference mandated 70,000 Afghan troops for Afghanistan. At the same time, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) stationed 5,000 troops in Kabul, along with 20,000 U.S. and Canadian forces, to fight the war on terror. NATO has since extended its mission to other parts of Afghanistan.

But the growth in insurgent activity, and their fierce resistance against Afghan and foreign forces in the south has increased the need for troops. At present, more than 150,000 foreign troops are stationed in Afghanistan, fighting alongside Afghan forces to fight the Talban and stabilize the situation.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has repeatedly raised the issue of handing over security responsibility to Afghan forces, particularly in the wake of NATO airstrikes that have caused major civilian casualties.

Based on the decision of the NATO summit in Lisbon, the handover process will start from the beginning of 2011.

“Afghan National Security Forces are able to take over security responsibility right now,” said General Mohammad Zahir Azimi, the spokesperson for the Afghan Ministry of Defense. “It is a good plan to hand over security responsibilities to the ANSF and it is something that the Afghan people want. We assumed responsibility for Kabul’s security two years ago.”

Azimi had harsh words for those who claim that the ANSF are not ready to defend their homeland

“Unfortunately, propaganda about withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan strengthens the morale of the armed opposition,” he said.

Afghan troops also express confidence.

“We can handle security better than foreign troops,” said Zahidullah, an Afghan National Army soldier. “We know our culture and the people do not hate us. We can lead all kinds of military operations if we have access to the same weapons and equipment that foreign troops have.”

But Afghan military analysts are divided in their assessments; some agree that the ANSF can take over security responsibilities if they are well equipped. But others say that the Afghan forces cannot take over responsibility for the country’s defense unless there is a significant change in country’s political system.

According to General Abdul Hadi Khalid, a military affairs expert, Afghanistan will face a major problem if the ANSF take over responsibility for security, because they are not equipped for the task.

“We have been facing a lack of security forces for the past nine years,” he said. “Nine more years will be needed to train and equip our forces. We have no efficient border police; neither do we have air or ground defense equipment.”

Others are more upbeat.

“Afghan National Security Forces can take over in four years if this process is conducted properly,” said military analyst Atiqullah Amarkhil . “If NATO trains and equips the ANSF so that they can defend the country, and stop foreign intervention in Afghanistan, they will be able to take over.”

But Azimi, the MoD spokesperson, disagrees that a major push is needed.

“Afghan Forces have similar weapons and equipment to NATO and the U.S. forces,” he said. “Afghan forces have high morale and their training process is going very well.”

There are about 150,000 foreign forces along with approximately 200,000 Afghan forces in Afghanistan.

Afghans are anxious about the future, and many fear that the international community may abandon the country once again.

“NATO, with all its modern weapons and equipment could not defeat the Taliban in the past nine years, so how can the Afghan forces do it?” asked Noorullah, 40, a resident of Nangarhar province.

“Afghan forces are not well-equipped and it is difficult to control the security situation in Afghanistan,” he added. “The United States and NATO know that they will face a worse destiny than Russians if they stay any longer in Afghanistan. They will just find an excuse for leaving the country.”