It has been nearly a year since Afghan and NATO began talking about a major clearing operation in Kandahar, the iconic seat of the Taliban. The military offensive has been underway for several months, but still there is little clarity about this operation, about its nature and possible costs.

A similar publicity campaign surrounded Marjah, the Helmand outpost that became the focus of a large military push in February. Almost immediately labeled a victory by Afghan and NATO troops, the operation bogged down in the face of prolonged Taliban resistance.

Analysts predict that the Kandahar offensive will meet the same fate.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, along with a number of high-ranking foreign officials made visits to Kandahar before and during the current operation. But reports on these trips have varied widely.

In April, Karzai and General Stanley McChrystal, then commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, met with tribal elders in the city; Karzai asked them for their views on the proposed operation, and assured them that o action would be taken without their approval.

The elders said they were opposed to any NATO intervention; but shortly after this visit, Mark Sedwill, NATO’s senior civilian representative, announced that the operation would soon begin.

Kandahar occupies a particular place in Afghanistan’s physical and political geography. It has a long border with Pakistan, and lies just across from Quetta, where the Taliban’s leadership is thought to operate. During the Taliban regime Mullah Omar, the movement’s leader, was located in Kandahar city.

Considering the strategic importance of Kandahar, both the government and the opposition have tried to gain control of the province. Afghan and NATO forces began planning the current operation months ago.

But some observers question the wisdom of the operation, asking what they can possibly achieve. Many are concerned with the potential impact on people’s living conditions, as well a on overall security in the area.

“I do not think that these operations achieve any results,” said Sultan Mohammad Piawarai, a Kandahar-based political analyst. “Many similar operations have been held in the province but ended with no results.

“The necessary cooperation between Afghan and NATO forces is lacking,” he added. “The government should have an organized plan for cleaning up the areas. They should deploy more troops in these areas, provide basic living needs and implement short and long-term infrastructure projects.”

According to Paiwarai, conducting such operations is just a waste of time, and will result in difficulties for the local residents if the government does not have a coherent plan for cleaning up the areas once the battle is over.

Noorul Haq Ulumi, a retired general and soon to be former MP from Kandahar, said that the operation in Kandahar is proceeding slowly, and no one knows about its success or failure.

“Afghan and NATO forces started floating propaganda about the battle for Kandahar a year ago but they have as yet achieved no real results,” he said.

According to Ulumi, Afghan and NATO forces move in and occupy an area, but after a short time they leave. This, he insisted, was due to the lack of an organized plan. He pointed to Marjah, which was the focus of a major operation in February; but still the Taliban control the nights there.

“No operation will have benefits if there is no organized plan for it,” he said.

But Afghan security forces point to what they se as their considerable success in routing the opposition.

“During this offensive we conducted 84 operations, out of which 46 were run by Afghan forces without the support of foreign troops,” said General Naim Mohmand, head of Kandahar’s security department. “As a result, 27 out 47 insurgent groups were totally destroyed and 20 groups became too weak to fight with afghan forces.”

On the other hand, NATO commander, General Nick Carter, was more cautious about operations in Kandahar in a press conference.

“We should not rush to judgment over the success of operations in Afghanistan,” he said. “In order to talk about real success, we should wait for some time. I think we will be able to talk about our success in operations by June 2011.”

July 2011 is the scheduled date for the beginning of the U.S. drawdown of troops.

But Carter said that the situation has improved in Kandahar.

According to officials, the first stage of these joint operations ended in October 2010, but they have been extended for another 18 months to completely destroy the insurgent nests in the province.

“This operation has brought remarkable changes in Kandahar’s security situation over the past year,” said General Abdul Hamid Wardak, commander of the 205th military unti. “During these operations many districts including Zharai, Dand, Arghandab, and Panjwai have been cleared of the opposition.”

According to Wardak, the next stage for the operation is to form local shuras, or councils, as well as local police groups, then to clear the area of planted mines and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). This would pave the way for reconstruction projects in these areas.

“In general, the current operations in Kandahar have been successful,” said Haji Fazaludin Aga, a tribal elder. “The opposition was very strong in some areas and if the government had not begun clearing operations the opposition would have become a real threat. We support these operations.”

But, he added, he was concerned that the operation would not finish the job.
“We hope that NATO and the Afghan troops do not leave very soon,” he added. “The government should deploy more troops in these areas to keep security.”
 
Haji Aga Lali, deputy head of Kandahar’s Provincial Council, agreed.

“In general, the operations are going well in Kandahar,” he said “The opposition’s influence in the area was damaging to the government and had to be eradicated.”

The U.S. ambassador, Karl Eikenberry, who visited Kandahar in November, was also upbeat.

“Before, when I was coming to Kandahar, I was hearing about war, but this time I hear about reconstruction,” he said.