Afghanistan’s Northern provinces have long seemed a haven of calm and safety compared to the south and the southeast, where insurgency rages, poppy is king and the government cannot seem to gain a foothold.

But underneath the apparent tranquility lies a tangle of political, historical and ethnic tensions that are threatening to push the region into chaos.

The head of the Department of National Security in one of the Northern provinces, speaking on condition of anonymity, told www.afghanistanvotes.com that he feared a concerted effort was being made to destabilize the north.

“Some figures are distributing weapons, the Taliban is starting to re-emerge, ethnic and tribal conflicts are intensifying,” he said. “These are all the result of organized actions.”

The security official would not name names, but he hinted at high-level government involvement.

“Unfortunately, there are government officials who do not want to promote security, but instead try to protect their own tribal and political interests by destabilizing areas that had been secure.”

Residents of the Northern provinces remember only too well the civil war years of the 1990s, when battles between rival armed groups tore the region apart. Junbish-e-Milli, the faction under General Abdul Rashid Dostum, fought the Hezb-e-Wahdat of Haji Mohammad Mohaqeq, and the Jamiat-e-Islami of Atta Mohammad Noor.

Atta, a prominent Jamiat commander, is now governor of Balkh province.

Juma Khan Hamdard, currently the governor of Paktia province and a close advisor of President Hamid Karzai, has also clashed with Atta – most recently in 2007, when Juma Khan was governor of Jowzjan province, which borders Balkh.

An ethnic Pashtun, Juma Khan was accused of favoring his fellow Pashtuns at the expense of the majority Uzbeks and Tajiks in the province. Violent demonstrations broke out, during which at least eight people died. Juma Khan was soon removed from Jowzjan.

Ethnic tensions are still a problem in the region; students at Balkh University orchestrated demonstrations over the use of the Pashto word for “university” in 2008. Police had to be called in to quell the disturbance.

During last year’s presidential elections, Atta again came up against Juma Khan, whom he accused to trying to foment problems in Balkh province.

All of this history sits uneasily in the minds of northerners, who fear that the bad old days are coming back again.

“People are now buying guns and ammunition, so that they can defend their lives and their property,” said Ghulam Yahya, a resident of Samangan province. “They do not trust the Afghan security forces to bring security. The situation is getting worse day by day, and everyone is afraid of conflict between rival factions.”

The Northern provinces include Balkhm Faryab, Sar-e-Pul, Jowzjan, Samangan, Takhar, Badakhshan, Kunduz and Baghlan. The majority of the population is Uzbek and Tajik, with smaller pockets of Pashtuns and Hazaras.

The area is hemmed in by mountains to the north, and borders at various points Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and China.

Afghanistan’s neighbors also have their interests in the region, say observers; this, along with the worsening of conflict between various armed groups in the North, is ringing alarm bells throughout the country.

According to Dr. Muhiauddin Mehdi, a political analyst in Kabul, the central government may be using organized groups to try and curtail the reach of Atta, the powerful governor of Balkh, who has made no secret of his opposition to Karzai.

“From beginning of Karzai’s government in Afghanistan, there have been attempts to make one tribe or another dominant in the North,” he said, “These actions were carried out by Karzai’s team and some technocrats from the West. We have seen many battles orchestrated in support of a particular group. This team tried a lot to create tension between Dostum, Atta and Juma Khan, the three most powerful figures in the north. This team is motivated by tribal interests. They are not happy with Atta’s power in the north and they are trying to create insecurity.”

The northern region has acquired a new strategic importance in recent years, as a supply route for international troops in Afghanistan. The convoys customarily come in from Pakistan, but as the security situation in the eastern provinces deteriorates, NATO is seeking new ways to deliver food, fuel and other necessities to their soldiers in the field. An interruption in the flow of goods could be very bad news for the war on terror.

Clashes along the Takhar-Kunduz-Baghlan road are becoming increasingly frequent. In June a roadside bomb killed six U.S. soldiers in Kunduz; clashes with insurgents in the area have caused both civilian and military casualties.

Hafizullah Frozan, who recently came to Kabul from Badakhshan, in the far north, said that his vehicle was stopped for more than two hours in the Alibad district along the Kunduz-Takhar road, due to clashes between the Taliban and government forces. Frozan said that several rockets landed near his car.

At the same time, the Afghan government forces were engaged in a “mopping up” operation to clear insurgents out of Baghlan province.

Security officials warn that the insurgency is receiving support from the central government.

“Some government officials are supporting insurgents in the North,” said General Murad Ali Murad, Chief of Shaheen Military Headquarters. If such support was not stopped, he said, he would publicize the names of the officials.

Many residents fear that the central government is trying to bring the Taliban back into power, a prospect that does not please those who lived through the Taliban’s brutal takeover of the north.

“We want peace but how can we trust the Taliban, who killed our relatives and burned our property,” said Siafuddin Karimi, a high-school teacher in Mazar-e-Sharif, capital of Balkh province. “The Afghan government does not treat all of its citizens equally. It is trying to bring back the Taliban, and those who object are dismissed.”

The recent resignations of two of Karzai’s most important ministers – National Security chief Amrullah Saleh and Interior Minister Hanif Atmar – have intensified fears that Kabul would like to see a greater role for the Taliban in the country.

Saleh especially had resisted moves by the central government to release Taliban prisoners from Afghan detention centers, and had pushed for a firmer hand with the insurgency.

Atmar, as well, had anti-Taliban credentials; however, he had also been accused by Balkh governor Atta of helping to arm certain groups in the north.

It is not yet clear how the removal of the two men will affect the situation, but according to political analyst Haroon Mir, of Afghanistan’s Institute of Research and Political Studies, it is not likely to improve matters.

“Saleh knew the security situation very well,” he said. “With his dismissal, destructive groups in the North are becoming more active, and the situation may well get worse.”

General Khalil Bakhtyar, the chief of Border Police for the Northern region, also warned that the situation was fragile.

“The mafia and the Taliban will succeed in destabilizing the region if something is not done,” he said.