Few issues have rocked Afghanistan’s political scene as violently as the resignations of the country’s two most powerful security chiefs, Intelligence Director Amrullah Saleh and Minister of the Interior Hanif Atmar. Nearly a week after their departure, speculation is still fierce as to the real reasons for their exit. 

The pair tendered their resignations on Sunday, June 6, after a particularly acrimonious meeting with President Hamid Karzai. The president was reportedly furious about the failure of security that allowed insurgents to attack his much-publicized Peace Jirga on June 2. Rockets and rocket-propelled grenades marred the opening of the event; no one was killed, but the violence stood in grim contrast to the rhetoric of peace inside the Jirga tent.

“Since my explanation of our security measures was not acceptable to the President, I resigned from my post as Interior Minister,” said Atmar, in a tense press conference Sunday evening. “Fortunately, the President accepted my resignation.”

Similarly, Amrullah Saleh cited the president’s lack of confidence in his competence due to the security breach at the Jirga as the main reason for his resignation. However, he also hinted at “many other reasons” for the move, although he said he would not go into detail at this time.

Many political analysts expressed skepticism that the rocket attacks were the main cause for the removal of Atmar and Saleh. Instead, they say, the pair was at the center of domestic and international intrigue, which finally resulted in Karzai’s decision to let them go.

Karim Hashimi, former governor of Logar Province, believes that the Jirga attacks were only an excuse used as a smokescreen for the media.

“The rocket attacks on the Consultative Peace Jirga were much less serious than other attacks by Taliban in Kabul while those men were in power,”
 he said. “We recall the attack on government officials during the celebration of Mujaheddin Victory Day on Hasht-e-Saur in 1387 (April 28, 2008). Several people, including a Parliamentarian, were killed. Likewise, the attack on the shopping center within 100 meters of the presidential palace and several other security incidents were more serious than the Jirga attack. Why, then, did the security officials not resign after those incidents?”

Atmar and Saleh were not the only security officials in charge of the Jirga, he pointed out. The other leg of the security triad, the Defense Ministry, was not charged with negligence.

“Why was Defense Minister Rahim Wardak not included in these resignations?” asked Hashimi. Prior to their resignations, both Saleh and Atmar were rumored to have serious differences with the president over matters of policy. Foremost among these was the question of relations with the Taliban. Karzai has emphasized that he intends to reach out to the insurgents, who have gone from “terrorists to “upset brothers” in government rhetoric over the past several weeks.

At the Jirga the president also promised, as a gesture of goodwill to the Taliban, to review the cases of insurgents in detention and, if necessary, to release them.

Saleh has repeatedly complained to the media that his security directorate has been active in apprehending Taliban insurgents, but that the judiciary soon releases them. He blamed this practice for the resurgence of the Taliban and for the difficulty of maintaining the fight against terrorism.

Atmar, as well, has spoken out against soft treatment of the Taliban.

Another reason often cited as playing a role in the resignations has been the position of Pakistan, Afghanistan’s sometimes-troublesome neighbor.

“Without a doubt, Saleh and Atmar were removed by the president, who came under intense pressure from the people around him and Pakistan’s ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) to give the Taliban a green light,” said Noorulhaq Ulumi, a parliamentarian from Kandahar and a prominent political analyst. “Saleh was aware of the security-related issues in Afghanistan, as well as of the interference of neighboring countries in Afghanistan’s internal affairs. Saleh’s advice to the president displeased the ISI. Pakistan had asked Karzai to remove Saleh several times, and eventually Karzai decided to sacrifice the interests of Afghanistan to the interests of Pakistan and to the cause of power-sharing with the Taliban.”

Following the resignations, Karzai left for Turkey, where he is attending the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). It is expected that Karzai will hold talks with his Turkish and Pakistani counterparts regarding the prevailing security situation and on ways to seek reconciliation with the Taliban.

In the wake of the departures of Saleh and Atmar, the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, said that relations with the Afghan government were improving.

Similarly, according to the statements released by Foreign Ministry spokesman Sultan Ahmad Bahin, one of the terrorists arrested on the first day of the Jirga, was a member of the event’s procurement team. Farooq Wardak, the Minister of Education, was the chief organizer of the Jirga, and also shouldered the responsibility for recruitment and procurement. But Wardak has not come under fire from the president’s team.

“As Amrullah Saleh rightly said, there are dozens of other national and international reasons for his resignation besides the incident which took place on the day of Jirga,” said Sarwar Jawadi, a parliamentarian and outspoken critic of the president. “Most people believe that Saleh was removed by Karzai’s pro-Taliban team and the ISI. Unfortunately, Karzai has once again surrendered to the terrorists.”

According to Jawadi, Karzai’s problem with his two security officials revolved around Pakistan and the Taliban.

Saleh, said Jawadi, was strongly supporting the fight against the Taliban and against ISI. In addresses to Parliament he has frequently grumbled about the lack of a strong will among high-ranking officials in the fight against terrorism. He even went so far as to suggest that networks exist within the government that supports terrorism.

Karzai also had a problem with Saleh’s ethnicity, added Jawadi. Saleh, an ethnic Tajik, had his hand on the nerve center of security in the country. With him gone, Karzai can proceed to align the security forces long ethnic lines.

According to Jawadi, Karzai had problems with Atmar as well. The first point of contention between Karzai and Atmar lay in Atmar’s strong anti-Pakistan stance. The second problem was that that Atmar is also anti-Taliban. Although he is a staunch Pashtun nationalist, Atmar considers the Taliban to be the main cause of the backwardness of Pashtuns in the political arena. The third problem of Karzai with Atmar was over the formation of a power circle around Karzai. On many occasions he was at loggerheads with Karzai over this issue and had recently threatened to resign.

According to political analyst Haroun Mir, with Saleh out of the way and Engineer Ibrahim Spinzada, a close Karzai confidant and an ethnic Pashtun , in charge of the intelligence apparatus, the road is open to honoring one of Karzai’s promises at the Jirga, the release of Taliban prisoners from Afghan detention centers.

It remains unclear how the international forces will react to the move; many of these Taliban prisoners are held in U.S. detention facilities.