As President Hamid Karzai at last prepares to host his much-advertized and much-postponed Peace Jirga on June 2, 2010, questions still surround the actual goals of the event.
While government officials are adamant that the main, and indeed only, purpose of the Jirga is to promote national reconciliation, many observers are convinced that the true mission of the 1600-person gathering is to drum up legitimacy for Karzai’s weak and ineffectual administration.
“The aim of the Jirga is to seek a solution to reconcile with the opposition and establish peace,” said Ghulam Farooq Wardak, head of the Jirga commission and also the Minister of Education.
The Jirga, or Council, a time-honored Afghan tradition, normally seeks to bring opposing sides together, where both parties to a conflict agree in advance to accept the Jirga’s ruling.
A Loya Jirga, or Grand Council, is convened in times of national crisis to deal with issues of territorial sovereignty, amendments to the Constitution, and other questions that can only be decided on the highest level.
Legal experts doubt that the present Jirga falls into either category.
On the one hand, the Jirga is not bringing two sides together: the Taliban have not been invited, and even the loyal opposition may not be adequately represented. Most analysts say that the majority of those present will be handpicked by Karzai.
“The Jirga, an old tradition of Afghan people, has been held to settle disputes and end conflicts,” said Asef Baktash, a member of the National Democratic Front. “Now the Afghan government wants to conduct a national Jirga to reconcile with opponents and to reach a sustainable peace in the country. But in my opinion it will not be effective because of the absence of the Taliban.”
The Taliban have paid little attention to the Jirga, except to scorn its premise and its potential. According to parliamentarian and former general Noorulhaq Ulumi, this is due to the insurgency’s realization that the Jirga has no real clout.
“The Jirga cannot play a key role in changing the current situation of Afghanistan,” he said. “The Taliban have understood this, so have not reacted to Karzai’s peace overtures. They know that the Karzai government is very weak, and has little public support. They are optimistic about the success of their insurgency.”
Political analyst Waheed Mojda agrees.
“The Taliban did not show any interest in the Jirga,” he said. “They think that their military machine is growing stronger by the day.”
But it is not just the armed opposition that will be absent at the Jirga.
The National Front, one of the largest peaceful opposition groups in the country, has decided not to participate.
“Our viewpoint is that the Jirga has no legitimacy,” said Fazil Sancharaki, spokesperson for the Front. “It is a governmental, symbolic Jirga because its participants from all over the country are selected by the government.”
According to the Constitution, a Jirga is composed of members of the national legislature, provincial and district councils, and government officials such as the Supreme Court and Council of Ministers, who have observer status.
This Jirga will also bring in civil society – members of women’s organizations, youth groups, business councils, religious councils, as well as representatives from refugee groups and other special interest associations. In the absence of district councils, which have yet to be formed, the Jirga will attract tribal elders from each of the country’s nearly 400 districts.
But the selection process has been far from transparent; no one is quite sure how the non-governmental representatives were chosen.
“Sixteen hundred people representing all races and tribes of Afghanistan will participate in the Jirga with the aim of finding a means to end insurgency and violence in Afghanistan,” said Abdul Qadir Zazi, head of the external relations commission of the Jirga.
But far more likely, say analysts, they will assemble in order to give Karzai the vote of confidence he badly needs to shore up his shaky legitimacy, a result of last year’s badly flawed elections.
“Karzai has realized that relations between himself and the people were not good, following widespread fraud in last year’s presidential elections,” said Baktash. “He has chosen the Jirga as a good way to stabilize the interests of his government. This Jirga will be symbolic only; it cannot have positive results because it is being influenced by the government.”
Other experts question the legal status of the Jirga. As stated above, the Constitution provides for calling a Loya Jirga in extreme circumstances. In other cases, the legislature is the proper forum for debating matters of national interest.
“There is no Constitutional basis for a National Consultative Peace Jirga,” said Faizullah Jalal, a lecturer in law at Kabul University. “The parliament is the only legitimate body that can take decisions in the current situation. So any decision made by the Jirga cannot be implemented.”
The Jirga was originally scheduled for early May; it has been twice postponed. The first delay was due primarily to Karzai’s trip to Washington.
This was confirmed by Farooq Wardak, who said that concerns in the West about the Jirga were one cause of the rescheduling of the event.
Karzai’s triumphant summit with American officials, including President Barack Obama, followed by a side visit to David Cameron, the new British Prime Minister, were expected to allay any lingering doubts.
But Karzai is facing challenges from inside Afghanistan, more specifically from the Parliament: two different groups of lawmakers are threatening to boycott the Jirga.
One, headed by Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqeq, is demanding a solution to the perennial Kuchi/Hazara conflict in central Afghanistan. Close to 60 Members of National Assembly, have joined the protest.
A smaller group led by Younus Qanuni, speaker of the Wolesi jirga, or lower house of Parliament, has said they will not participate in the Jirga unless Karzai agrees to put forward nominees for the 10 acting ministers in his Cabinet who have never been confirmed.
Another factor dampening enthusiasm for the Jirga is the failure of a similar effort two years ago.
The “Regional Security Jirga,” which brought together representatives from Afghanistan and Pakistan, was supposed to set up a framework for discussions between the two sides. Nothing came of the highly publicized event, and many feel that the National Consultative Pace Jirga will likewise be a waste of time and money.
“Karzai does not want to bring peace to Afghanistan,” said parliamentarian Sarwar Jawadi. “He knows this Jirga will have no result. He is just trying to obtain legitimacy for his government.”
