Civilian causalities are damaging whatever fragile support the foreign forces still have among the Afghan people. The coming operation in Kandahar will likely suffer from the effects of the latest NATO miscalculation.

NATO’s strafing of a passenger bus in Kandahar on April 12, which resulted in the deaths of at least four civilians, has provoked enormous anger among Afghans, particularly in Kandahar.

This comes at a particularly sensitive time in Kandahar, where U.S. forces are planning a major offensive for the summer, designed to clear out the Taliban and improve security.

NATO expressed regret at the loss of life, but justified its actions by saying that the bus had approached it convoy at great speed, ignoring warning shots and signals for it to stop.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai condemned the incident, calling it “unjustifiable” and “contrary to NATO commitments to protect civilians.”

The public outcry seems likely to increase the challenges surrounding Operation Omid (Hope), which will be the largest military offensive since the U.S.-led Coalition launched its invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. It will also be a major test of the strategy announced by U.S. President Barack Obama last December, when he promised a military surge to help stabilize the country in preparation for a drawdown of forces in 2011. Up to 30,000 new troops are arriving in Afghanistan, many of them destined for the volatile areas of the south, particularly Kandahar.

But many of Kandahar’s residents are doubtful that Operation Omid will bring them the benefits promised. Instead, they fear the violence and chaos that are likely to ensue.

According to numerous media reports, in a meeting with a local shura, or council, in early April, Karzai asked those assembled whether they wanted the operation. He promised that nothing would happen without their agreement. With Commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, looking on, the elders shouted that they did not want Operation Omid. The hostility in the hall was palpable, according to one Western journalist who was present.

Nevertheless, the United States and its allies are moving forward with the operation. This, along with the civilian casualties, could seriously complicate the central task of Operation Omid – to convince Kandaharis that they are better off with the Afghan government and its foreign backers than they are with the Taliban.
 
“Support from Kandahar’s elders and influential figures is vital for the upcoming military  operation in Kandahar,” said Member of Parliament from Kandahar and military analyst Noor ul-Haq Ulumi. “Foreign forces should build trust among people that their lives and property will be safeguarded in this operation.”

“It will be very difficult for the US forces to win hearts and minds and achieve their goals in Kandahar if they once again target civilians,” he added.

Abdul Hanan, a prominent elder in Kandahar, agrees.

“The operation has not yet started but innocent people are being killed in the province,” he said. “Such operations which result in civilian causalities can damage the fragile credibility the foreign forces have among Afghan people.”

NATO’s senior civilian representative in Afghanistan, Ambassador Mark Sedwill, emphasizes the political aspects of this operation.

On April 20 he told reporters that the main objective of Operation Omid was to strengthen governance o Kandahar and to win the hearts and minds of the people. Omid, unlike an earlier operation in neighboring Helmand, would not begin in a major demonstration of force, he added.

"It will be a series of individual rippling operations across Kandahar city and districts around it, led by the Afghan forces to improve security gradually, step by step, not in a big bang," the British newspaper The Independent quoted him as saying.

But despite assurances that the new operation will not cause turmoil, residents are skeptical both of the motives behind Omid and the likely outcome.

“The foreign forces did not come to Afghanistan to stabilize security and end the insurgency. They are here to kill Afghans, destroy our country and exploit our people,” said one Kandahar resident, almost spitting out the words.

 “They take our happiness away and give us sadness instead. Why I should not be upset? They have killed scores of my family members. Karzai should ask them to account for their irresponsible actions; but if he cannot then he should let us to defend ourselves and our land as we did from the Russians,” he added.

Operation Omid will be the largest offensive of the war to date; in February combined force of 15,000 American, British and Afghan forces stormed Marjah, a district in neighboring Helmand province. The operation, called Moshtarak, resulted in massive displacement of people, and failed to secure the area. While the government flag now flies above the Marjah district center, residents still fear for their lives. The territory is salted with Improvised Explosive devices (IEDs), and the Taliban still rule the nights, planting more explosives and exacting retribution from those who collaborate with the foreign forces or the government.

Kandahar promises to be much more difficult than Marjah.  It is densely populated, with a population that, to outsiders, is virtually indistinguishable from the Taliban. Observers fear this will result in massive civilian casualties.

“Civilians and the Taliban wear the same clothes,” said one military analyst, who did not want to be named. “Many families have weapons in their homes without any ties to the insurgents. How can NATO tell the difference?”