Negotiations with the Taliban have become one of the hottest topics for all sides involved in the war in Afghanistan. The only problem is that no one is quite sure whether the issue is being taken seriously by any of the principals. To outside observers, all the fuss looks very much like a political game designed to distract attention from some of the many challenges facing the Afghan government.

At the London Conference, more than two weeks ago, President Hamid Karzai undertook to bring the “reconcilable” Taliban back into the government fold; but so far there have been no signs of practical implementation.

Instead, Karzai seems to have placed all his hopes for talks with the Taliban on Saudi Arabia: he visited Jeddah in early February, reportedly to enlist the support of King Malik Abdullah in facilitating negotiations.

Saudi Arabia has previously tried to bring the sides together – most recently in 2008. But no real, substantive progress has been reported so far.

The Taliban have made no secret of the fact that they have no faith in the Karzai government, and will not discuss peace until the foreign troops leave.

“Karzai’s government is illegitimate and has no credibility,” said Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahed. “The only way to stop the war is for foreign troops to leave the country. Karzai has no authority to talk with the Taliban. Our position has always been that we will not stop fighting as long as even one foreign soldier is still on Afghan soil.”

The Taliban leadership has expressed outrage at the plan by Karzai and his international partners to “buy off” low-level Taliban fighters by giving them money, land, and jobs.

“This is a misperception of the Taliban and their aims,” said the statement.

The statement also demanded that Taliban prisoners be released, and that the names of Taliban be removed from the United Nations blacklist, which freezes bank accounts and prohibits movement of recognized Taliban leaders.

Nevertheless, Presidential spokesperson Siyamak Herawi told www.afghanistanvotes.com that the Afghan government would soon be able to point to results in the negotiation process.

“Our conditions for negotiations are that the Taliban must accept the Afghan Constitution, human rights, freedom of speech, etcetera,” he said. “We have two types of Taliban: Afghan Taliban and those linked to the Al Qaeda network. The Afghan government is trying to separate them. In addition, some Taliban have contacted us and demonstrated their willingness to begin normal lives. The Afghan government gives them jobs and safe living conditions.”

Herawi said that King Malik Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had agreed to help the Afghan government promote dialogue with the Taliban.

Wahid Mujda, a political analyst who worked in the Taliban Ministry of Foreign Affairs, believes that all the talk of negotiations with the Taliban is nothing more than a political game by which Karzai hopes to distract the public’s attention from major problems within his own government.

Facing mounting criticism from the West over corruption and election fraud, he said, Karzai has offering up negotiations with the Taliban, even though he himself knows this is not practical.

“Karzai knows Mullah Omar personally,” Mujda pointed out. “He knows what Mullah Omar wants. Karzai knows the Taliban leadership will never negotiate as long as foreign troops are in Afghanistan. And the Taliban do not fight for money and land. In my opinion, Karzai has no practical basis for talks; he is just doing this for his own political goals.”

The issue of negotiation with Taliban is not new; it has been floating around for eight years now, and was an important debate point during last year’s presidential elections.

Karzai’s main rival in the contest, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, also had a plan to talk to the Taliban. But, says Saleh Mohammad Registani, a member of Abdullah’s election team, the two men had very different approaches.

“We examined the issue in close consultation with parliamentarians,” he explained. “We wanted to reach a satisfactory peace, but we also wanted people to be informed about this. But Karzai has not consulted the people or the parliament, which is why it is creating concerns among people, human rights organizations, political parties and civil society.” 

The initiatives proposed by the Afghan government – bringing low-level Taliban back into society with money and jobs – is also not new. The Peace and Reconciliation Committee headed by Senator Sebghatullah Mujadeddi has been operating a reintegration program for more than five years now, with limited success. Instead, according to most estimates, the situation is worse now than ever.

Mojadeddi’s commission did manage to get some high-ranking Taliban released from American prisons, for which prominent figures such as former Taliban Foreign Minister Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil and Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaeef have reason to be grateful. But it has done little to stem the insurgency.

Many are skeptical that this push for negotiations will be any more successful than previous ones.

“Karzai is not serious or honest in his outreach to the Taliban,” said Registani. “He is just trying to shore up his government by bringing in some Taliban whom he has been able to separate from their network. Karzai’s election coalition is very fragile; when Parliament did not support Cabinet ministers proposed by General Abdul Rashid Dostum and Mohammad Mohaqeq, they turned against Karzai. Besides, the Taliban’s main supporter, the ISI (Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence) is not ready to trust Karzai and force the Taliban to talk with the Afghan government.”

But Presidential Spokesman Herawi insists that the talks are on track.

“This time we have the support of the international community, and military pressure,” he said. The Afghan government is serious.”

But Karzai’s main problem at home is insecurity, and many doubt that talks with the Taliban will help. Rather the opposite, in fact: whenever the government begins to talk about negotiations with the Taliban, the insurgents respond by mounting attacks in Kabul and elsewhere.

When Karzai was declared president in October, the international community gave him six months to deal with the pressing problems of his administration, such as corruption, insecurity and drugs.

But almost four months have passed, and little progress has been made on those key issues. Instead, the idea of talks with the Taliban has moved to center stage.

“Karzai is unable to solve problems,” said Mujda. “He has lost popularity both inside and outside the country, and he will be able to do little.”