KABUL -- The London Conference on Afghanistan, slated for January 28, 2010, has not yet convened, but war-weary Afghans are already writing it off as a waste of time. The central issue of the conference – dialogue with the Taliban – received a major setback on January 18, when seven heavily armed insurgents attacked Kabul, paralyzing the center of the city for hours. The ensuing battle left 12 dead and scores injured, while at the same time putting paid to any hopes of peace negotiations in the near future.

The conference has received a huge build both inside Afghanistan and throughout the international community: hosted by the British government, it is supposed to provide a roadmap for relations between the government of President Hamid Karzai and his international backers in the coming year. Afghanistan is sending a high-powered delegation that will include the president, the ministers of interior, defense, and agriculture, as well as the acting minister for foreign affairs.

“The London Conference is being held to discuss the commitments of the international community with respect to strengthening the Afghan security sector, regional cooperation, social progress, and the transfer of responsibility and authority to Afghan bodies,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Zahir Faqiri.

High on the agenda will be the question of reconciliation with the Taliban and the ongoing fight against corruption, according to both Afghan and international sources.

Karzai has made peace negotiations a centerpiece of his administration’s strategy, and a statement recently released by the presidential palace stated that dialogue with the Taliban would be the main issue to be discussed.

“The Afghan government has taken serious steps to ensure that dialogue with the Taliban will be discussed at the conference,” said the Foreign Ministry spokesman. “ The Afghan government is ready to overcome any obstacles to bring peace to the country.”

But Karzai, under attack abroad for the badly flawed presidential elections last August, as well as for the widespread corruption within his government, cannot seem to decide whether to accuse or wheedle when he talks of his erstwhile backers.

In an interview with the he said: “We are not going to (London to) ask for more cash,” he told Al Jazeera Al Jazeera English-language television network in early January. “We are going to ask the international community to end night-time raids on Afghan homes. We are going to ask them to stop arresting Afghans ... to reduce and eliminate civilian casualties. We are going to ask them not to have Afghan prisoners taken. Those are the most sensitive areas of sovereignty for any nation, and we want to have that sovereignty retained.”

Civilian casualties have been an explosive issue in Afghanistan, and have done much to dampen support for the foreign military presence, as well as to drum up support for the insurgency.

Karzai, whose relations with the West have cooled markedly over the past year, has been hammering the United States and its allies for operations that have left civilians dead. An Afghan government report alleges that U.S. Special Forces recently killed eight schoolboys in Kunar in a night raid; the U.S. military insists that all the dead were insurgents.

But the Afghan president is also have a difficult time at home: a recalcitrant Parliament has rejected almost half of Karzai’s Cabinet picks, forcing the president to head to London with a less than fully functioning government.

In these less than ideal circumstances, Karzai has to convince the international community that he can deliver on his promises to ring peace and to fight corruption.

Now the Taliban have delivered their answer to the president’s overtures.

“The Taliban’s stand towards the Afghan government is clear,” said Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mojahed. “We believe that the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is the main problem, and we will continue fighting until these troops leave Afghanistan unconditionally. In our opinion, Karzai has no authority to talk with the Taliban.”

The attacks on January 18 were a forceful answer to any talks of peace. The Taliban claimed responsibility, and, with just a handful of fighters, managed to penetrate into the heart of the capital – just meters away from the presidential palace, where, at the time of the attack, Karzai’s 14 confirmed ministers were taking their oath of office.

According to Qaseem Akhgar, editor of the Hasht-e-Sobh daily, the attacks show that the Afghan government as well as the international community still does not have an accurate picture of the Taliban insurgency.

“Mullah Omar has been invited many times by the Afghan government to come to the table. The international community has supported Afghan government’s initiative. But the Taliban just benefited from this policy, and have continued to demonstrate their power.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently told the Media in Pakistan that the U.S. government would have no objections to the Taliban joining the Afghan government, provided they lay down their arms and accept the Constitution.

Judging by the January 18 attacks, the Taliban are a long way from that.

Many people within Afghanistan are dismayed by Karzai’s persistent overtures to the insurgents.

“Karzai and his associates have been trying to bring the Taliban into the government ever since Bonn,” said political analyst Dr. Muhaiddin Mehdi, referring to the Bonn conference in December, 2001, which outlined the future government of Afghanistan and selected Karzai to head the interim administration.

“This is what has led to the re-emergence of the Taliban,” he continued. “(The London Conference) is just another attempt by the Afghan government to bring the Taliban to power. But it will not succeed. (Taliban leader) Mullah Omar himself has repeatedly rejected the possibility of dialogue with the Afghan government as long as there are foreign forces in Afghanistan.”

But even if talks with the Taliban are off the table, the London Conference may be Karzai’s last chance to repair his damaged ties with the international community, added Mehdi.

“At the London conference the international community will decide whether they will continue their cooperation with the Afghan government and the war on terror,” he said. “Karzai was not able to win the August presidential elections in the first round; his government has been under criticism for years. So now the international community has given him a six-month deadline to combat corruption. I do not think that the Afghan government will bring up serious issues at the conference; instead, the British and the Americans will put pressure on Karzai, to either bring significant change to his government or to resign.”

Former Deputy Foreign Minister Mahmood Saiqal dismisses the London Conference as little more than a public relations ploy aimed at shoring up Karzai’s shaky power.

“This is nothing more than an attempt to give the Karzai government more legitimacy,” he said. “But Karzai is going to the London Conference without a confirmed Cabinet. His government will not be able to attract the necessary cooperation of the international community.”