Afghans and international observers alike are waiting anxiously for newly inaugurated Afghan President Hamid Karzai to announce his cabinet. But it remains a mystery how Karzai will satisfy the demands of his supporters while trying to keep the international community happy.
Before the elections, Karzai tried to shore up his position by promising senior government positions and other political benefits to many “warlords,” tribal leaders and power brokers.
Now, the time has come for Karzai to fulfill all of those promises he or his campaign team made. The president faces a tide of expectation from those who pledged their support during the campaign.
On the other hand, Karzai is caught under mounting international pressure, especially from the United States, to form a government without presence of warlords. He has also been told that he must rid his government of corruption within six months. The Americans have even threatened Karzai with withdrawal of troops if he fails to meet their main conditions.
This seems to be a crucial predicament for Karzai. If he bows to the will of West, he may have to get rid of many of his domestic supporters. But disappointing his backers could lead to a crisis at home.
At a time when Karzai has apparently put reconciliation with armed groups and forming a national unity government on the top of his agenda, it is unlikely that he could at the same time turn against the warlords and tribal leaders.
But the international community seems dead set on cracking down on corruption and the warlords.
Now Karzai must choose whose will to accept.
“The NATO forces are here, and Westerners support Karzai principally for their own strategic interests,” said Afghan political analyst, Wahid Mojhda. “They are not here to keep Karzai in power. Karzai knows very well that the West cannot make good on its threats even if he does not do what they want.”
According to Mojhda, Karzai does not take the West’s demands very seriously.
Karzai started sending negative signals to the West even during his inauguration ceremony on November 18.
“The West has called on Karzai to put fighting against corruption his first priority,” said Mojhda. “But in his inauguration speech, Karzai said that his top priority is reconciliation with the armed opposition, not fighting against corruption.”
Pressure from the warlords and tribal leaders seems to be more challenging for Karzai.
Mojhda stated that Karzai knows that domestic elements have more power and can be a serious threat to his government if he turns against them. At a time when his electoral rivals call Karzai illegitimate, he needs the support of other domestic allies.
“Karzai needs to make sure that when he appoints a governor, his appointee can get the office and will not be rejected by a warlord somewhere in the country,” said Mojhda.
Massoud Ansari, Afghan author and political analyst, disagrees.
According to Ansari, Karzai was offered the presidency principally because the international community wanted to put an end to the election crisis. But the West will not support Karzai as they did in the past eight years.
Ansari believes that this will be the last chance for the international community to achieve its goals, and also the last chance for Afghanistan to try to sustain democratic principles in the country. The West has now realized this, he insists.
Westerners, especially Americans, have been trapped in the quagmire of Afghanistan; the death toll of their soldiers has been rising; the war is rapidly losing public support; and most importantly, the reputation of NATO has come into question. A part of this problem was created because of the corruption and weakness of Karzai’s administration and his personal mismanagement.
This time Karzai has to commit to the will of his Western supporters; otherwise, he cannot continue his administration even for a few months, Ansari added.
“The support of warlords and tribal leaders is very important for Karzai, but not as vital as the international support,” he said. “Karzai’s government is too weak to withstand mounting insecurity and financial challenges if the international supports stops, and he knows this only too well.”
