With Abdullah’s withdrawal from the elections, the future of the vote is in doubt.

Afghanistan’s political crisis deepened on Sunday with Dr. Abdullah Abdullah’s announcement that he would not participate in runoff elections against incumbent President Hamed Karzai. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) has said it will go ahead with the vote regardless of Abdullah’s boycott.

In a strongly worded, emotional speech, Abdullah castigated Karzai for the failures of the past eight years, as well as for the widespread fraud committed during the first round of elections, held on August 20. With a dramatic flourish, he then announced that he would not take part in the second round of elections, scheduled for November 7.

Abdullah motivated his decision by what he categorized as Karzai’s refusal to take any action to ensure a free, fair and transparent vote in the runoff. Abdullah had advanced a set of conditions for his participation in the elections, but Karzai and his team rejected them all outright.
The first round of the elections was badly marred by massive, widespread, systemic fraud, as determined by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission.

Karzai had claimed outright victory in the first round, with 55 percent of the vote. After a audit, the ECC nullified enough votes to bring him under the 50-percent-plus-one threshold necessary to avoid a runoff.

The flawed elections and their long-drawn-out aftermath have dented the faith of many Afghans in the election process and in democracy itself. Now the runoff is in question, given Abdullah’s refusal to participate. But elections monitors are still looking for ways to avoid a repat of the August fraud, in the event that the IEC does press ahead with the poll.

Jandad Spin Ghar, Head of Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA) suggests several points to prevent rigging in runoff elections. Many could be interpreted as a direct rebuke to the IEC and related organizations.

First of all, said Spin Ghar, all election organizations must maintain their neutrality, something that unfortunately was not true of the first round. He also recommended that those who perpetrated fraud should be punished in accordance with the law, to discourage election officials from committing such acts in the future.

Spin Ghar also recommended structural changes to the IEC, to restore the trust both of the candidates and the public in the neutrality of the commission. Many observers have charged that the IEC favored Karzai, and one of Abdullah’s chief demands was the removal of IEC head Azizullah Lodin.

So-called “ghost” polling stations, located in areas where security is so bad that people cannot go out to vote, should be closed. It was these stations that the bulk of the fraud occurred, according to national and international monitors. The physical safety of voters must be assured by national and international forces.
 
The role of monitors should be enhanced. In the first round of elections, there were very few international monitors on the ground. This time there will be even fewer. National observers were in many polling stations, but not in those located in areas of high insecurity.

One of the main stumbling blocks in trying to improve the second round of elections has been the IEC’s refusal to acknowledge the scale of the fraud in the first round.

IEC spokesman Noor Mohammad Noor denied that there was any organized vote-rigging in the August election, and insisted that the IEC head and other officials had nothing to do with any irregularities that might have occurred. Only lower level staff were implicated, he said. According to the IEC, some 200 district commissioners have been sacked, and some will face charges for their actions.

“There is no guarantee that there will not be fraud in the upcoming elections,” said Noor “But the Commission will make efforts to fulfill its obligations properly.”

 Mohammad Sarwar Jawadi, a member of Abdullah’s election campaign, was extremely critical of the IEC’s performance in the first round.

”If the IEC was impartial, why did it not pay attention to the fraud during the first round?” he said. “They announced preliminary results in which Karzai received almost 55 percent of the vote, and they did not publish the final result until Karzai accepted a runoff. So we realized that the IEC was not independent and transparent. There fore the removal of the IEC chief for the second round of the elections was necessary.”

Now the country is awaiting the decision of the IEC. The law makes no provision for the withdrawal of a candidate before the election. Many observers think that it would be  in the best interests of the country to cancel the elections, avoiding the danger and expense of what can only be a symbolic vote.

The matter may ultimately go to the Supreme Court for adjudication. But until then, Afghanistan’s political crisis will continue.