The elections were supposed to be one of Afghanistan’s most significant achievements since the fall of Taliban regime in 2001. But now the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s second presidential election is in doubt, and its most likely winner, President Hamid Karzai, is facing major domestic and international challenges.

One of the major hurdles Karzai will have to overcome, if he is declared the winner, will be the possibility of violent demonstration, due to concerns about his legitimacy. The elections were marred by widespread allegations of fraud, registered by both domestic and international election watchdogs.

Another concern is about the future of Karzai’s controversial dealings with warlords and tribal power brokers – Mohammad Mohaqiq, prominent Hazara leader, Marshal Qasim Fahim, controversial running mate of Karzai, and especially, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the powerful Uzbek tribal leader.

Dostum supported Karzai in the elections in return for concessions and privileges. Dostum has been in exile in Turkey since last year, following a very public and violent altercation with a political rival.  He was allowed to return during the campaign, but only for one week. He was then packed off again to Turkey.

According to the preliminary results, President Hamid Karzai gained a first-round victory with more than 54 percent of the votes, while his main contender, Abdullah Abdullah, received over 27 percent.

But the final results will not be announced until the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), the UN-backed body responsible for adjudicating the irregularities and allegations of fraud, has examined the complaints and made a ruling.

The ECC has been investigating around 3000 fraud allegations, the bulk of which are against Karzai. It is now recounting a sampling of 10 percent of the suspicious ballots, and is expected to make a decision within days.

If fraud allegations are proved, a major portion of ballots could be discounted, necessitating a runoff between Karzai and Abdullah.

“Afghanistan will have a difficult time if Karzai is declared the winner of the elections in the first round,” said Engineer Mohammad Habib, researcher and political analyst. “The public, at least in some parts of the country, will not be convinced because of widespread fraud claims, so there are possibilities of violent demonstrations which can lead Afghanistan to a crisis.”

According to Habib, if a transparent and fair runoff takes place, the public will accept the winner; otherwise, the current troubles of Afghanistan will be doubled.

“A first-round victory for Karzai would annoy Abdullah’s supporters, most of whom are in the relatively secure northern and north-eastern parts of the country,” he said. If people in those areas turn against Karzai, it could open the way for a Taliban resurgence in areas where they had not previously made a strong showing, he added.

Yahya Nabawi, political analyst in Tamaddon TV disagrees. According to Nabawi, although people are angered by the widespread fraud that allegedly took place in the August 20th elections, they do not want to see the situation go from bad to worse.

“The people of Afghanistan are tired of three decades of war,” he said. “Despite all the irregularities, people prefer the current situation to the Taliban regime or the era of civil wars in the 90s. People are of course annoyed by the widespread fraud that has been committed by the leading candidates, but they understand that violent protests would lead Afghanistan into an even worse situation.”

He insists, however, that the ECC should adjudicate all the allegations of fraud seriously and carefully, as otherwise, an administration based on such a controversial election would have no legitimacy.

But Nabawi agrees that if Karzai does win the elections, he will face major domestic and international challenges.

 “People in the northern and central parts of Afghanistan voted for Karzai because they were promised more rights and services,” he said. “If Karzai does not or cannot fulfill his promises, public support in his favor would decline precipitously.”

On the other hand, the coalition of Karzai with the warlords and prominent tribal leaders who persuaded their tribes to vote for Karzai seems very fragile.

“All the warlords, tribal leaders, and big power brokers have supported Karzai in exchange for governmental positions, political support, and apparently more rights for their tribes,” said author and political analyst Massoud Ansari. “If they see anything as being against their personal desires, they will be the first to turn against Karzai”.

Ansari pointed out that Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim was one of the most serious critics of Karzai during the past five years. Many times he publicly blamed Karzai for ignoring the Mujaheedin and keeping them from state power. Now, he is Karzai’s running mate.

“Fahim has not changed,” said Ansari. “He will never tolerate anything against his wishes.”

Dostum is another worry, he added.

“General Dostum thought he would regain power in exchange for supporting Karzai,” said Ansari. “He was allowed to return in order to persuade his supporters to vote for Karzai, but was forced back to exile very soon after the elections.”

This has disappointed and angered Dostum’s numerous supporters in the North, said Ansari.

Ansari pointed to last year’s dispute between Karzai and Haji Mohammad Mohqeq – a prominent leader of the Hazaras. The conflict erupted over the yearly clash over grazing rights between the nomadic Kuchis and the Hazara residents of Behsud district, in Wardak province.

Karzai did not openly condemn the attacks of the Kuchis on the Hazaras, which prompted tens of thousands of Mohaqiq’s tribesmen to come to Kabul, to protest against Karzai.

According to Ansari, such demonstrations could likely to happen again.

International support is vital for Afghanistan, and any waning of that support could pose an even bigger challenge for Karzai.

This problem has gained momentum lately with the public disagreement within the United Nations over how to respond to allegations of fraud in the elections.

Peter Galbraith, the former deputy to UN Special Representative in Afghanistan, Kai Eide, was recently sacked over a disagreement with his boss.

In a letter to the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon, he raised serious questions about the honesty of the UN’s role in the elections, and, more importantly, about the legitimacy of the election itself.

According to Galbraith, as many as 30 percent of Karzai's votes were fraudulent, and lesser fraud was committed on behalf of other candidates. In several provinces, including Kandahar, four to 10 times more votes were recorded than voters actually cast.

The fraud “handed the Taliban its greatest strategic victory in eight years of fighting the United States and its Afghan partners,” Galbraith wrote in a comment piece for The Washington Post. “President Obama needs a legitimate Afghan partner to make any new strategy for the country work,” he added.

These recent remarks by the second- highest UN official in Afghanistan, as well as the comments of EU election monitors, who claimed that 1.5 million votes were fraudulent, and continuous reports published in western press about vote-rigging by Karzai’s team, has put Karzai under huge international political and psychological pressure.

“Now that hundreds of reports of allegations of fraud have been published or broadcast in the western media, I think that even if the ECC declares Karzai the winner; international public opinion will not be convinced,” said Sarwar Jawadi, Member of Parliament. “Western governments will have a hard time persuading their people to support a government that is based on fraud”.

According to Jawadi, even the war on terrorism will lose more supporters if the public considers the Afghan government to be illegitimate.

“Even if Karzai wins the election, he will not have as much international support as he did during the past eight years,” he said.  “Therefore, the possible lack of international support for a country which is largely based on international sources, could lead Afghanistan towards a crisis.”