BAMIAN – As polling day in the parliamentary elections draws near, the tension is increasing by the hour. But there is as yet no clear reading on how many voters will actually turn out to cast their ballots.

According to the statistics published in the Independent Election Commission (IEC), 72 percent of Bamian’s eligible voters cast ballots in 2005, in Afghanistan’s first post-Taliban parliamentary elections. 

But most observers are predicting a lower turnout on September 18.

Ismail Zaki, coordinator for Bamian’s Human Rights and Civil Society Network, stated that, considering the situation, people would not have much interest in these elections.

“Widespread fraud in last year’s presidential and provincial council elections, as well as tribal discrimination in the Parliament, particularly the no-confidence vote the legislature gave to ministers from a certain ethnicity, are the main reasons that the people of Bamian do not have much of a desire to participate in the election,” he said.

The vast majority of Bamian residents are Hazara; in June, the Parliament rejected two of the president’s Cabinet picks from the Hazara ethnic group, giving rise to anger and speculation that ethnic discrimination was playing a role in politics.

Bamian resident Nawroze Bai is also pessimistic about voter turnout on Saturday.

“Compared to the first parliamentary election in 2005, even the candidates are less enthusiastic,” he said.

Razia Eqbal Zada, deputy head of Bamian’s Provincial Council, pointed to fraud as the main reason voters would not be eager to go to the polls.

“We have had presidential and provincial council elections with high voter turnout,” she said. “But the widespread fraud perpetrated in that election has convinced people not to go to the polls.”

Razia Husseini, a female candidate for Parliament, said that even logistics were conspiring to depress voter numbers.

“In the last elections we had 14 polling stations in Bamian’s Girls’ High School,” she said. “This time there are only two. It will be impossible for all of the voters, estimated at 7600 in this area, to vote all in the same day.”

With voter concern at such a high level, the authorities need to be paying more attention. But the IEC has not been responsive to Bamian’s voters, say residents.

The regional IEC office in Bamian, declined to comment on this.

Analysts believe that the failure to take action will diminish the authority of the IEC and other election bodies, as well as resulting in a loss of people’s civil rights and a decrease in confidence in the government.

“The legitimacy of the election will be questioned both inside Afghanistan and internationally if the voter turnout should prove to be extremely low,” said Ismail Zaki.