Controversy has already engulfed the second round of voting in Afghanistan’s troubled presidential elections, scheduled for November 7. As incumbent President Hamid Karzai prepares to face his former foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, many observers are wondering whether there is any chance that the runoff will be any better than the fraud-ridden first round.

The main question, just ten days ahead of the poll, is will it actually happen? Abdullah has advanced a set of conditions, which he says must be met if he is to participate. Among these are the sacking of the election commission chief, the suspension of several ministers, and the replacement of more than half of district election commissioners.

Karzai has refused these demands, putting the two challengers once again at stalemate. Abdullah has given Karzai until the end of the month to comply with his demands, but has declined to say whether he will boycott the elections if his conditions are not met.

The first round of elections, which took place on August 20, were distinguished by massive, widespread vote-rigging. Karzai initially claimed victory, with close to 55 percent of the vote. But subsequent investigations lowered his tally to below the 50-percent-plus-one threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

Abdullah says that the chairman of the Independent Election Commission, Azizullah Lodin, was not impartial during the election process, and has called for his removal. Abdullah also wants the suspension of Minister of the Interior Hanif Atmar, Education Minister Farooq Wardak, Acting Minister for Border and Tribal Affairs Asadullah Khaled, and the head of the Independent Directorate for Local Governance, Jalani Popal, on grounds that they also were partial to Karzai.

Another sensitive issue is the so-called “ghost” polling centers, which are in areas too insecure to allow monitoring. According to many authorities, in particular former UN official Peter Galbraith, these centers were responsible for thousands of fraudulent votes. Abdullah has called for these to be closed.

The challenger maintains that he has offered these conditions to help improve the transparency of the elections.

However, there are questions about the legality and practicality of implementing Abdullah’s suggestions.

“There is nothing like this in the Constitution of the Electoral Law,” said parliamentarian Dr. Sadeq Saljuqi. “A solution can be reached only through the cooperation and mutual trust of the candidates.”

According to the Constitution, the only option is a runoff in cases where no candidate attains more than 50 percent of the vote, he insisted.

But in a country like Afghanistan, with rampant corruption, a low level of political literacy, and a tenuous rule of law, there are few hopes for a transparent runoff, says Nasrullah Stanekzai, lecturer in political science at Kabul University.

“The level of participation could be low,” he said. “There is no time to conduct an election campaign.” However, he did leave open the possibility that some people would be highly motivated to vote to counteract the first round, where over 1.3 million votes were invalidated due to fraud.

Turnout is could be a problem – if the number of voters is extremely low, it could jeopardize the legitimacy of the resulting government. Even during the first round, the overall turnout was barely 30 percent. The second round could bring in many fewer voters.

“People have lost faith in elections,” said political analyst Qasim Ahkgar. “They are not interested in the runoff, because of all the vote-rigging in the first round.”

Along with turnout, the possibility of a repeat of the fraud that marred the first round is also a worrying factor, say analysts.

“If we are to have a transparent runoff, another (election) commission should be established with the participation of both candidates” said Akhgar.

The United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) has also tacitly admitted that some of its officials were implicated in the fraud.

According to UN spokesman Aleem Siddique, more than half of the district commissioners – some 200 out of 380 – would be dismissed.

But the IEC has countered by saying that the hiring and firing of personnel is its decision, not the purview of the UN.

Recently UN Special Representative Kai Eide told the New York Times that the UN had developed new mechanisms to prevent fraud; details have not been announced.

Even though both candidates have rejected the idea of a coalition government, some observers are still waiting for a last-minute deal.

“Abdullah will try and put obstacles in the way of the runoff,” said Zia Rafat, a lecturer at Kabul University. “He knows that Karzai will win the runoff.”

Karzai, said Rafat, will expect that Abdullah would try and create problems, so he will accept some sort of a power-sharing arrangement.

But a spokesman for Abdullah’s campaign insisted that his candidate would not enter into any deal with Karzai.

“Dr. Abdullah will contest the runoff, period,” said Fazel Sancharaki. “He knows that a coalition cannot resolve the problems of Afghanistan. He wants to bring real change.”

Karzai has also rejected rumors of a power-sharing deal.

“We will make no coalition with Dr. Abdullah,” said Moen Marastyal, a Karzai campaign official. “After the announcement of a runoff no candidate has the right to make a deal.”

Security will also be a major issue in the runoff. There were over 400 separate attacks on Election Day in August, resulting in the deaths of dozens of Afghan voters and election officials.

According to Major General Zahir Azimi, spokesman for the Defense Ministry, the approaching winter could create problems, but he insisted that security had improved since the first round.

“We have learned lessons, and we have made some preparations,” he said. “Security will be better this time.”

Logistically there are also hurdles to overcome, given Afghanistan’s harsh climate and mountainous geography.

But IEC spokesman Noor Mohammad Noor said that preparations were underway and that materials had already been sent out to more than 24 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The campaign, which extends from October 24 until November 6, is also underway, he added.

“Once the government of Afghanistan, with the support of the UN and the international community elect a president by popular vote, the crisis of legitimacy will end,” he said. “But there will still be issues, such as the presence of foreign forces, and new problems will emerge.”