Almost six weeks have passed since the presidential and provincial council elections, but the results are still unknown. This has bred turmoil and anxiety, in both the international community and among ordinary Afghans.

According to Electoral Complaints Commission, which will announce the results of the elections in the coming days, there are over 700 serious complaints, which could substantively affect the results of the poll.

Meanwhile, Abdullah Abdullah, main rival to incumbent President Hamid Karzai, has repeatedly spoken of massive fraud in the elections. He has declined to discuss a coalition government, and has said he will not change his position until the final results are announced.

 “If the second round of elections is to be convened, nobody could say the first round was legal,” Abdullah told the BBC.

Some analysts and experts think that a second round of elections between the two leading candidates would at least help in shoring up people’s faith in the electoral process, as well as restoring some credibility to the government. A second round might also help smooth over rifts between the Karzai government and the international community which have come to the forefront during the elections.
“If the ECC could present documentary evidence and proof based on the complaints lodged and on its own impartial and accurate investigations that show the forgery in elections, and if the forgery is to a degree which could put the transparency and legitimacy of the elections under question, it is necessary to hold a second round of elections to respect people’s votes,” said Shahla Haq, an electoral expert.

In her opinion, the people want to see someone elected based on their votes not through fraud.

“People’s thinking has changed,” she added. “There has been an advance in their social and political insight, and they are now better able to think of their own and their children’s future.”

If the Independent Election Commission and the ECC decide to hold a second round, they will have responded to the voices of millions of citizens who want a transparent election, she said. A second round would raise the confidence people have in the IEC and the ECC; give people an assurance that their votes were counted fairly; and change the way people view those who perpetrated the fraud. They may not vote for those people again.

Kawa Ahangar an election expert with IFES, claims that the most important issue in the current situation is the legitimacy of the government.

 “If we are to lay a new foundation in Afghanistan, we must choose and mortar the stones in a very careful way, so that people have trust,” he said. “We should be prepared to bear any costs to have a legitimate government in this country.”

Ahangar added that a second round would be a tribute to the Constitution, as well as contributing to the institutionalization of elections as a sound and legal system for assuring the legitimacy of the government.

But Nasrullah Stanikzai, professor of Law and Political Sciences at Kabul University, said that a second round should be held only if there is proof of fraud.

“If the fraud is at a level which undermines the legitimacy of the elections, a second round must be held so that the final results enjoy full legitimacy,” he said.

At the same time, Stanikzai added that there is no guarantee that people will again go to polling stations and vote because the security situation has deteriorated still further.

 “I am personally concerned that the second round of election will lead to people’s fragmentation and further the crisis,” he said.

While some people deem it certain or at least probable the second round of election will be held to add to the legitimacy of the results, others reject this idea.

Zabiullah Barakzai, another election expert with IFES says that, given the multiple pressures on security forces to ensure security in the second round of elections, the additional financial burden, as well as the lack of any guarantee that a second round will be any less fraudulent than the first, a second round is not in the best interests of the country.

Barakzai believes that even fewer voters will go to the polls for a second round.

Voters are also split on the desirability of a second round of elections.

Discussions with people from different walks of life in Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kandahar, Nangarhar and Bamyan, reveal that the majority of people say they would nto participate in a second round of elections.

Mohammad Juma, 32, a shopkeeper in Herat, said he no longer trusts the government or the elections, and will not vote in a second round, although he did fulfill his civic duty in the first round.

 “They broke my faith,” he said. “My vote is not important because, whatever the power-holders want, they do.”

Dr. Ahmad Jawed Saadat, a resident of Kandahar who voted in the 20 August 20th elections, said that he, too, would abstain from a second round.

 “The Afghan people should not be harassed any more,” he said. “More money will be needed for the second round, and our people will face even more risks.”

Shershah 35, a shopkeeper in Mazar, thinks that very few people will vote in the second round, because winter is coming and the roads will be blocked.

Shershah is concerned that a second round may breed more fraud than the first, since people have become savvier at how to do it. He blames the media to an extent for people’s discontent regarding the elections.

“The media kept talking about fraud, and this affected the way that people think,” he said.

Arifa, 24, a student in Bamyan University, said that she would not take part in a second round of voting.

 “I believe that even if the elections take place ten times, there is no way to prevent fraud,” she said.

 Habiba, 23, a high-school student in Jalalabad believes that holding the second round just ridicules people’s votes.

“I will not take part in any second round,” she said.

In addition to security concerns, many practical considerations weigh against a second round. Shahla Haq points out that ballot papers will have to be prepared, most likely outside the country, and distributed throughout the country. Poll workers will have to be retrained, and polling stations materials, such as ballot boxes, chairs, tables, and booths will have to be brought to all corners of Afghanistan. Public service announcements alerting people to the time and location for the second round will need to be broadcast.

No exact figures exist for voter turnout in the first round, and there is no reliable data as to the overall number of voters. But just 5.5 million votes were cast, while the overall voter population is estimated at 15-17 million.

There is still a possibility that the IEC and the ECC will call for a second round, aimed at ensuring legitimacy of the results. But there are no guarantees, either for security, transparency, or legitimacy of the final results. Afghans may well spend the next five years with a regime whose legitimacy is seriously in doubt.