With the presidential elections still unresolved, there has been little attention focused on next year’s parliamentary ballot. But unless the election bodies begin to make preparations soon, the legislative poll could run into the same legal and Constitutional challenges that marred the start of the presidential campaign this spring.

According to Article 83 of Afghanistan’s Constitution:
“Members of the Wolesi Jirga (Lower House of Parliament) are elected by the people through free, general, secret, and direct elections. Their mandate ends on the 1st of Saratan of the fifth year after the elections, and the new assembly starts its work. The election of the members of the Wolesi Jirga shall be held within 30 to 60 days before the expiry of the term of the Wolesi Jirga. “

The previous parliamentary elections were held in September, 2005; according to the Constitution, its term would be up on June 26, 2010, with a requirement to hold elections 30 to 60 days prior to that date.

But it seems unlikely that the country will be ready to hold a parliamentary election in April/May, 2010.

Zakaria Barekzai, deputy head of the secretariat of the of Independent Election Commission (IEC) said that some preparations had already been made..

”A large gathering has been held with the donors to discuss the financing of the process, but it is not yet clear who will fund the elections,” said Barekzai.

A more detailed plan will be drawn up after the final results of the presidential and provincial council elections, he added, after which it will become clearer how much money the IEC will need to hold the elections.

But the presidential election process has dragged on for over two months, with no resolution yet. This has led to delays in beginning the process of organizing the parliamentary vote, which could raise serious problems next spring.

The major problem for the parliamentary elections will be registration of voters, said Barekazai.

“It will be necessary to update the list of registered voters as well as register newly eligible one,” he said.

But this is a long process, and could delay the elections, he added.

Election expert Bakht Muhammad Bakhyar advised that in any discussion of elections, internationally accepted standards should always be kept in mind.

“Given the history of Afghanistan, as well as its current situation, there are challenges to free and fair elections,” he said.

Among these challenges are all of the issues which plagued the presidential elections, he added, including economic questions, security issues, the role of the government administration, and the culture of elections.

“The parliamentary elections will not only be more difficult than the presidential ballot, they are also unlikely to be held on time,” he said.

The logistical challenges alone would be daunting, he pointed out, given the multiple elections zones – parliamentary elections are held on the provincial level, with separate ballots for each province -- the large numbers of potential candidates, the weakness of the central government, the absence of rule of law and the lack of experience with elections among voters.

”The IEC (Independent Election Commission) and other organizations will have to begin their preparations as soon as possible to hold timely and transparent elections,” he said.

But Abdul Samad Azizi, deputy senior researcher at the Political Science Academy of Afghanistan thinks there is a good possibility of holding elections on time, given the political will..

“It is the duty of the government to include the financial cost of the elections in the annual budget and have it approved by the parliament,” he said. “The IEC works independently, but it is not separate from the government. It should not have to go looking for its own funding.”

Azizi believes that the government could hold elections on time and with little expense.

“The government can use schools, universities, teachers and students,” he said. “They could organize the elections in two weeks.”

He also advocates using more local products, rather than shipping everything in from abroad at great expense.

“Materials such as ink, scissors, knives, ballot boxes and ballot papers are purchased at huge prices from abroad, “ he said. “It would be much cheaper to use local products.”

Azizi emphasized that the main responsibility for holding free and fair elections in a timely manner rested with the president, as the chief monitor and implementer of the Constitution. The heads of the judiciary and the parliament should play a role as well.

“If the president (delays the elections and thereby) violates the law, then how can we claim to be able to hold transparent and legal elections?” he said.

If the elections are delayed, issues could arise about the legality of the current parliament, once its mandate expires on June 26.

The same problem caused a small crisis during preparations for the presidential poll: Karzai’s term was officially over on May 22, 2009; but the elections could not be held until August 20 for logistical reasons. There was a great deal of rhetoric opposing the president’s extended term, and many parliamentarians threatened not to recorgnize him as president after his legal mandate had run out.

“There is no mandate for the continuation of the current parliament once its legal term is up on 1 Saratan (June 26), which is determined by the Constitution,” said Azizi.

Shukria Barakzai, a Member of Parliament in the Lower House, agreed that all responsible organizations should try to hold the elections on time. However, if for some reason that is not possible, the current parliament will continue its work until new representatives are elected, she said.

“Personally, I am in favor of enforcing the law and holding elections on time,” said Barakzai.

The system used for the parliamentary elections will be the same as in 2005 – the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV), which allows each voter one vote, regardless of the number of seats being competed.

Dr. Shahla Haq, director of capacity-building at the IEC, said that the SNTV is often used in elections where many candidates are running for a limited number of seats.

“This is the most reasonable system for Afghanistan,” she said. “Each system has positive and negative aspects. In Japan, they have been using this system for 40 years.”

But there are drawbacks, she added. The large number of candidates running means that in some provinces, the ballot paper will be extremely large. In Kabul’s parliamentary poll in 2005, for example, there were more than 440 candidates running. This creates problems for the budget, as well as logistical difficulty in shipping the ballots out to the various provinces. Also, it makes it difficult for voters to identify the candidate they wish to vote for.

The IEC has not yet made any decision about where to print the ballot papers, she added.
“But if the security situation remains as bad as it is now, there is a high probability that that the ballots will be printed abroad, as they were for the presidential and provincial council elections,” she said.

But many observers point to what is likely to be the biggest challenge faced by the organizers of the parliamentary elections: Given the level of skepticism and mistrust engendered by the badly flawed presidential elections, it may be very difficult to inspire voters to come to the polls. This could be another blow to efforts by the Afghan government and the international community to stabilize the country and advance democracy.